Trust Intelligence

Reuter's consensus was 35 bcf
5 year average = 50 bcf (given 5 yr. average weather)
year ago was 70 bcf (during a worse economy, obviously)
EIA this week = 28 bcf

Generally bullish report.

EIA Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,919 Bcf as of Friday, July 23, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 28 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 94 Bcf less than last year at this time and 239 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,680 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 25 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 34 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 126 Bcf above the 5-year average of 861 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 5 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 88 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 1 Bcf. At 2,919 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Last week is usually the hottest week in the year with the smallest summer NG add to storage.

Analyst average expectations was 36 bcf added.
EIA stats say it was 37, which is close enough to not be significant.
Certainly not especially bullish even though the 5 year average add is 40 bcf.

Storage levels are about 20% higher than the 10 year average but 132 bcf below last year. Certainly, there is no real need for more supply, but the room in storage suggests that there will not be a significant price squeeze owing to nowhere being available to put the weekly excess in production.

Bloomberg consensus: +38
Last year: +53 on warmer than normal weather
Normal: +58

This EIA report for last week: +40

weather outlook is moderate and front month prices have declined to 11 month low.
Current storage is less than last year, but on average, current levels are usually not hit until the second week in Sept.

Nearest contract has lost 11% in the last 7 sessions, down a full 23% in Aug.

No, it will still vary seasonally by more than 20%, I think.
And eventually, when the idiots in Congress and the environmentalists come to understand reality, the use of NG should expand, so there is room for low-cost producers. But it will not be as lucrative as producing light crude.

While heat content equivalent is 1:6 (crude to standard NG), the value/price equivalent is 1:16, as I outlined in my recent Premium Service Report on the O&G Trusts.